Market Connection: May 2024 Market Outlook and Report

Kyle Henry • May 13, 2024

What you really need to know about home prices

According to recent data from Fannie Mae, almost 1 in 4 people still think home prices are going to come down. If you’re one of the people worried about that, here’s what you need to know.


A lot of that fear is probably coming from what you’re hearing in the media or reading online. But here’s the thing to remember. Negative news sells. That means, you may not be getting the full picture. You may only be getting the clickbait version. As Jay Thompson, a Real Estate Industry Consultant, explains: “Housing market headlines are everywhere. Many are quite sensational, ending with exclamation points or predicting impending doom for the industry. Clickbait, the sensationalizing of headlines and content, has been an issue since the dawn of the internet, and housing news is not immune to it.”


Here’s a look at the data to set the record straight.


Home Prices Rose the Majority of the Past Year

Case-Shiller releases a report each month on the percent of monthly home price changes. If you look at their data from January 2023 through the latest numbers available, here’s what you’d see:


Case-Shiller: Prices

Month-over-month percent changes in home values (Seasonally Adjusted)

What do you notice when you look at this graph? It depends on what color you’re more drawn to. If you look at the orange, you’ll see that home prices rose for the majority of the past year.


But if you’re drawn to the gray, you may only focus on the two slight declines. This is what a lot of media coverage does. Since negative news sells, drawing attention to these slight dips happens often. But that loses sight of the bigger picture. 


Here’s what this data really says: There’s a lot more gray in that graph than orange. And even for the two orange bars, they’re so slight, they’re practically flat. If you look at the year as a whole, home prices still rose overall.


It’s perfectly normal in the housing market for home price growth to slow down in the winter. That’s because fewer people move during the holidays and at the start of the year, so there’s not as much upward pressure on home prices during that time. That’s why even the green bars toward the end of the year show smaller price gains.


The overarching story is that prices went up last year, not down.

To sum all that up, the source for that data in the graph above, Case Shiller, explains it like this: “Month-over-month numbers were relatively flat,

However, the annual growth was more significant for both indices, rising 7.4 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.”


One of the best examples is 1503 Ralston Avenue, Belmont. It closed 130+% over asking, nearly $800k (confirm), and had a super short time on the market. On the surface, there's a lot that you might think would deter a buyer: an out-dated interior on Ralston, which is a main road. But there is a pool and a mostly flat yard. Belmont is also a bit of a sleepy town, and while it's beloved for its schools and some neighborhoods see fierce competition, this isn't where we would expect to see that. The answer might lie in inventory. Belmont is only second to San Bruno in lacking inventory for the last 6 months.

In addition to that, there are 611 Santa Susana Avenue, Millbrae, and 819 Robin Ln., Millbrae. Both are Millbrae, and in the last two weeks, they have had the two highest overbids in the county. This aligns with what we are seeing on the ground: Millbrae, which is always a favorite among buyers because of its location, schools, and beautiful parks, has emerged as a highly competitive market in the last couple months.


So, if you find yourself among the many who are concerned about the trajectory of home prices, remember this: while sensational headlines may grab attention, they often fail to provide the full context. The reality is that when we examine the data objectively, it tells a different story. Yes, there may be occasional dips in the market, but overall, the trend is upward. Take, for example, the Case-Shiller data, which illustrates that home prices have predominantly risen over the past year. Even during slower months, such as winter, where there may be a temporary plateau, the overall trajectory remains positive.


As you navigate through the sea of headlines and opinions, remember to focus on the facts, not the fear. Real estate markets can be complex, but with a clear understanding of the data and trends, you can make informed decisions for your future.

MY TAKE

Caroline's take on the latest market trends

When considering home prices, it's crucial to look beyond the alarming headlines and focus on the data. Sensational media coverage can often skew perception, but the reality is more nuanced. Despite occasional dips, the overall trend for home prices remains upward.


Real-life examples, like those in Belmont and Millbrae, demonstrate the strong demand in desirable areas with limited inventory. As you navigate the housing market, prioritize the facts and trends over fear-driven news. By staying informed, grounded, and patient, you can navigate the real estate journey with confidence.


Contact us today to discuss your specific situation and develop a personalized strategy to achieve your real estate goals.

Market Report May 2024

Here's the latest May 2024 Market Update showing year-over-year data. The data includes all Single-family homes, condos & Townhomes in the California Area sourced from MLS Listings for the period from May 2023 thru May 2024. This may include preliminary data and may vary from the time this data was gathered. All data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Content from this article is courtesy of Keeping Current Matters.

FOR NEWS INQUIRIES


Kyle Henry

Director of Marketing


Kyle.H@CarolineHuo.com

650.727.1308

Share & Stay in the Know

By Kyle Henry February 12, 2025
As we embark on a new year, many of us turn our attention to planning for the future, ensuring not only our own well-being but also the security and prosperity of our loved ones. For those with substantial assets, particularly in the realm of real estate, a comprehensive estate plan is not merely prudent, it is essential. A living trust, stands as a cornerstone of such a plan, offering a multitude of advantages that extend far beyond a simple will. This blog will elucidate ten compelling reasons why you should consider establishing a living trust in 2025: 1. Evading the Labyrinth of Probate. One of the most significant benefits of a living trust is its ability to circumvent the often protracted and costly probate process. Instead of your assets being tied up in legal proceedings, they pass directly to your beneficiaries, ensuring timely access to their inheritance. 2. Preserving Privacy. Unlike a will, which becomes a matter of public record upon probate, a living trust remains a private document. This confidentiality safeguards your family's privacy, shielding your financial affairs from unwanted scrutiny. 3. Planning for Potential Incapacity. A well-structured living trust incorporates provisions for managing your assets should you become incapacitated. This foresight ensures that your financial matters are handled according to your wishes, obviating the need for potentially intrusive court intervention. 4. Unparalleled Flexibility and Control. During your lifetime, you retain complete control over the assets within your living trust. You possess the power to amend or even revoke the trust as your circumstances evolve, providing unparalleled flexibility. 5. Mitigating Estate Tax Burden. Depending on the value of your estate, a living trust can be strategically designed to minimize estate taxes, thereby maximizing the wealth ultimately transferred to your beneficiaries. 6. Bypassing Ancillary Probate. If your real estate portfolio spans multiple states, a living trust can help your heirs avoid the complexities and expenses of separate probate proceedings in each jurisdiction. This streamlined approach saves time, resources, and emotional strain. 7. Facilitating a Seamless Transition. A living trust simplifies the transfer of assets to your beneficiaries, eliminating the need for court oversight and making the transition smoother and less stressful for those you leave behind. 8. Protecting Vulnerable Beneficiaries. Within your living trust, you can establish provisions to protect beneficiaries who may be minors, have special needs, or lack experience in managing substantial assets. This safeguards their inheritance and ensures it benefits them in the most effective manner. 9. Ensuring Generational Continuity. A living trust offers a mechanism to ensure your assets are managed and distributed according to your wishes, even if your primary beneficiaries predecease you. This provides a level of control and continuity over generational wealth, securing your legacy for the future. 10. Achieving Long-Term Cost Savings. While establishing a living trust involves upfront costs, it can ultimately lead to substantial savings by avoiding probate fees, potential legal challenges, and other associated expenses. It is an investment in peace of mind and financial prudence. Partnering with Experts: Securing Your Future Crafting a comprehensive estate plan, particularly one incorporating a living trust, often requires the guidance of experienced legal professionals. For those seeking expertise in this area, Gomez Law offers a range of services related to estate planning and trust administration. They specialize in navigating the complexities of trust creation, ensuring your financial legacy is secured according to your wishes. Learn more about their services at https://cahometrust.com/ . As you contemplate your goals for 2025 and beyond, consider the profound benefits of a living trust. It is more than a legal document;  it's a testament to your commitment to your loved ones and the preservation of your legacy. Contact us today to discuss how a living trust can help you achieve your estate planning goals.
By Marketly Team January 21, 2025
The advent of a new year invariably inspires reflection and the setting of ambitious goals. For many, these aspirations may include the allure of a new home – a sanctuary that perfectly reflects their evolving needs and desires. However, the path to realizing this dream can appear daunting. Where does one begin? How does one navigate the complexities of the modern real estate landscape? This guide aims to provide discerning individuals like yourself with the insights and strategies necessary to successfully embark on your 2025 real estate journey. 
By Kyle Henry January 14, 2025
Set your real estate goals for 2025 with expert insights tailored for buyers, sellers, and investors in the Bay Area. Discover why this year is perfect for achieving your dream home, upgrading, or investing in high-value properties. Start planning today!
By Marketly Team December 19, 2024
The holiday season can be a time of joy, but it often comes with stress and overwhelm. In this guide to holiday wellness, we share practical tips on healthy eating, stress-reducing activities, and mindful practices, all tailored to help you maintain balance during the festivities. Explore our curated list of the best wellness resources in the Bay Area, including top spas, meditation centers, and yoga studios, to help you find tranquility amidst the holiday hustle.
By Marketly Team December 12, 2024
A Strategic Move for Maximum Impact. While spring is often seen as the peak season for real estate, winter offers a unique opportunity to sell your home with less competition and more motivated buyers. Discover how to capitalize on this strategic advantage and position your property for a successful sale.
By Kyle Henry November 25, 2024
Explore the best places to live in the San Francisco Bay Area! From Burlingame’s charming downtowns to Redwood City’s booming tech scene, discover why neighborhoods like San Mateo, Belmont, and San Carlos are ideal for families, professionals, and anyone seeking the perfect place to call home. Read on to find out what makes these cities stand out and why they could be the perfect fit for your next move.
By Kyle Henry November 22, 2024
Are you feeling discouraged by high home prices and wondering if owning a home is even possible? There’s still a way to achieve homeownership, even when affordability feels like a major challenge: consider a fixer-upper. Let’s explore how this option can help you take the first step into homeownership and what it takes to make it work. What Is a Fixer-Upper? A fixer-upper is a home that’s move-in ready but needs varying levels of updates or repairs. Some may require simple cosmetic changes, like fresh paint or new flooring, while others might need more significant improvements, such as roof replacements or plumbing upgrades. Since these homes often require some level of effort to enhance, they’re typically priced lower than comparable move-in-ready homes. In fact, a study by StorageCafe reveals that fixer-uppers are generally priced about 29% below market value. This affordability is one reason why more buyers are considering fixer-uppers as a viable option (see graph).
November 4, 2024
CKH Clients, Friends & Family, join us for our annual Holiday Party
By Kyle Henry October 18, 2024
Discover essential tips for investors looking to maximize their rental property investments. Learn how to build the perfect team, from property managers and legal experts to 1031 Exchange specialists, to ensure long-term success and profitability.
By Kyle Henry October 15, 2024
Proposition 19: What You Need to Know
More Posts
Share by: